The 2026 midterms will certainly go down in US history as a particularly momentous election. While a blue wave was anticipated, the staggering shift towards Democratic control greatly surpassed the expectations of many. But what exactly happened, and what can we anticipate for trans Kansans and our allies?

In this blog post, we’ll go over some facts and figures, provide a political analysis of the situation, and offer some next steps.

Election Results

National

In Congress, Democrats have regained control of both the House and the Senate. Democrats’ gain in the US House is so substantial that they will likely be closer to having a supermajority (that is, comprising over 2/3rds of the House) than losing the majority once all the races have been called.

Of 36 gubernatorial races, the Democrats flipped six seats. 30 states will have a Democratic governor going into 2027.

Five states lost their Republican “trifectas” — that is, the Republicans no longer control the executive branch and both chambers of the legislative branch of that state. Meanwhile, five states gained Democratic trifectas.

Ten Republican supermajorities were defeated across the country. Five Democratic supermajorities were formed.

Kansas

As of November 5th, the races for governor and attorney general have not yet been called. However, based on current data, Democrats Cindy Holscher and Chris Mann are very likely to defeat Ty Masterson and Kris Kobach, respectively. This marks the first time in Kansas history that a Democrat has served as governor for three consecutive terms.

Democrat Adam Hamilton defeated incumbent Roger Marshall to serve as a senator in Congress. The last time Kansas elected a Democrat to the Senate was in 1934. Meanwhile, the makeup for our US Representatives stayed the same: Districts 1, 2, and 4 are represented by Republicans while District 3 is represented by Democrat Sharice Davids.

Republicans lost their supermajority in the Kansas House after Democrats successfully flipped 20 seats, leading to a House composition of 68 Republicans and 57 Democrats. The last time a party lost so many seats in Kansas was 1938 when the Democrats lost 34 seats.

Democrats gained a larger portion of voters in every county in Kansas. Compared to the 2024 presidential election, Kansas counties shifted an average of 13.5 points towards the Democrats.

Trans Ballot Measures

Across the country, there were six anti-trans and one pro-trans ballot measures voted on Tuesday night. Arizona, Colorado, Nebraska, and Washington each passed a sports ban on trans women participating in women’s scholastic and collegiate sports. Colorado also voted for a ban on gender-affirming care for minors. Missouri fortunately defeated a similar ban and passed a different ballot measure that limits the ability of lawmakers to overturn citizen laws.

On a more positive note, Vermont voted to add anti-discrimination protections for trans people. This ballot measure proved to be far more popular: the anti-trans ballot measures passed with an average 15-point margin while the Vermont ballot measure passed with a whopping 59-point margin.

Analysis

What the Exit Polls Say

According to exit polls, Kansans broadly agreed with voters around the nation when it came to political concerns and priorities. When asked what the top issue of this election was, 34% of Kansans chose the economy while 33% chose the state of democracy. Diving even deeper, we find that Kansans were concerned about:

• the cost of living (86% of voters)
• immigration enforcement (74% of voters)
• the war in Iran (72% of voters)
• AI data centers (56% of voters)
• government corruption (54% of voters)

Out of all these issues, only voters concerned about immigration enforcement were more likely to vote Republican. For the other issues, Democrats held an average lead of 20 points. Simply put, Kansans felt that Republicans would not be able to adequately address their main concerns — even Republicans themselves.

When looking at the results for governor, 75% of votes for Ty Masterson came from Republicans. Only 50% of votes for Cindy Holscher came from Democrats; 2 out of 3 independents and 1 out of 10 Republicans cast their votes for Holscher. Additionally, Masterson voters were 5 times more likely to vote a split ticket when it came to the Senate race than Holscher voters.

The Culture War on Reality

Exit polls in Kansas found that 55% of voters feel that trans rights have “gone too far.” This number could have been influenced by the $183 million that Republicans invested in anti-trans political ads.

As it turns out, perhaps the reason why Republicans invested so much money in attacking trans people is because it is the only issue where voters are more likely to vote Republican.

For instance, when it comes to:

• Immigration, 56% of Kansans disapprove of ICE;
• The economy, 73% have a pessimistic view, and 60% have a negative opinion on Trump’s economic policies;
• AI, 76% of Kansans oppose constructing data centers;
• Foreign policy, 56% of Kansans disapprove of the war in Iran and 49% disapprove of US support for Israel;
• Healthcare, 55% of Kansans believe the government should do more to help people gain healthcare and 53% believe the Trump administration has worsened the health of Americans.

For voters who held these positions, Democrats, on average, held a 58-point lead. The Republican Party’s vicious attack on trans people was really a desperate attempt to cling to power in the face of overwhelmingly unpopular decisions and policies made under Republican control. Voters didn’t fall for the scapegoat.

Transness in Kansas: What to Expect

Trans Kansans: take a breath.

Holscher — and the vast majority of the Kansas Democrats, for that matter — have demonstrated a consistently pro-trans attitude over the years. With Holscher as governor and the Republican supermajority in the House broken, it is highly unlikely that any new anti-trans laws will pass during the next two years.

Furthermore, Kobach’s defeat could bode very well for the lawsuits against 2025’s SB 63 (the gender-affirming care ban) and 2026’s SB 244 (the bathroom and gender marker change ban). While Mann has not vocally stated an opinion on trans issues, it seems likely that Mann would be more amenable to something like a consent judgment, such as what happened with Foster v. Andersen in 2019, than Kobach. It could potentially make it easier for Kansans to sue the state over other anti-trans laws and succeed.

However, there is one potential threat lurking: the ballot measure. The success of five different anti-trans ballot measures — two in states with Democratic trifectas — is an alarming development. This could be a new tactic for anti-trans Republicans in the state legislature to utilize.

The Limitations of the Blue Wave

While the blue wave was certainly exciting to witness after the past two years of the Trump administration, it is also something to be wary of. A big part of why MAGA won so big in the 2024 election was the failures, complacency, and complicity of the Democrats.

For an example of this, consider the Democrats that took explicitly anti-trans stances in this election. While they were a minority of the candidates running, it is undoubtedly alarming to see the political candidates propped up as the bulwarks against fascism so quickly agree to throw a marginalized population under the bus and refuse to acknowledge what a dangerous precedent it sets to strip rights away from them.

There is a natural assumption that Democrats are socially and economically progressive. The reputation of the Democrats as a populist, progressive party is rooted largely in the successes of FDR’s New Deal and LBJ’s Great Society. Yet the social democratic policies set forth by both programs began to be disassembled with the development of neoliberalism, which sought to increase privatization and profit. While Ronald Reagan kicked off the neoliberal era, it was ultimately Democrat Bill Clinton who cemented it as the predominant economic ideology of the US.  Of course, the Democratic Party was never a party of the working class, but any loyalties to the working class have largely disappeared. In their place is lip service through performative gesturing towards marginalized populations without any commitment from the party to improve the quality of life for anyone but rich donors.

But the wheels of neoliberalism are starting to fall off. As it comes undone, the ruling class becomes more desperate to increase profits and maintain the US’ position as the world superpower while the standard of living for us working class people worsens further and further. And the Democratic Party, beholden to the ruling class above all else, will always naturally veer towards upholding their interests instead of our interests as the working class.

Because of this, do not trust that we are out of the woods. MAGA failed spectacularly. If the Democrats refuse to change anything about the party’s platform, then the reactionary pushback will be even more dire. Regardless of whether or not one considers MAGA to be a fascist movement, the fact of the matter is simple: if the Democrats continue to operate like they have since the Clinton years, then the response will be much worse than MAGA ever was and undoubtedly fascist in nature.

The Democrats are not here to save you. If anything, the Democrats were saved as a party by the voters. Your elected officials SERVE YOU! Do not settle. Fight for what’s necessary. Fight for what’s needed.

Keep Your Eye on Immigration

What the exit polls also reveal is that Republicans are more concerned with immigration than trans issues. This reflects an unfortunate trend seen globally as the world’s power centers shift and international migration increases. Increased uncertainty about employment, income, and security find an outlet through xenophobia. The vulnerability of immigrants makes them easy targets for hyperexploitation and scapegoating by the ruling class.

Fascism has always been preoccupied with the Nation in opposition to the Other. The attack on trans people through increased policing and institutional erasure mirrors the struggle of immigrants in many ways. Their fight is our fight. Even if the attack on trans people ended tomorrow, it is absolutely critical for us to fight for and protect the immigrants in our lives.

Immediate Next Steps

Contact Adam Hamilton and Sharice Davids as soon as possible and urge them to not vote for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries as the Majority Leaders. The Democratic Party needs to change. Countless polls reveal highly negative opinions of both Schumer and Jeffries. If you want to avoid another MAGA but worse, then contact Hamilton and Davids and any other Democrat in Congress like your life depends on it.

Make sure to stay cautious and stay safe. The Trump administration’s attacks on the left and marginalized populations are still in place.

And most importantly: continue to find and build your community. The struggle for the liberation of all people is only just beginning. The Democrats won’t save you — but you can save yourself.

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